Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.

In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection. The model forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in the US under varied transmission and vaccination rates. We further obtained the control reproduction number and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine how each parameter may affect virus transmission. Although our model has several limitations, the number of infected individuals was shown to be a magnitude greater (~10×) in the unvaccinated subpopulation compared to the vaccinated subpopulation. Our results show that a combination of strengthening vaccine-induced immunity and preventative behavioral measures like face mask-wearing and contact tracing will likely be required to deaccelerate the spread of infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants.

On Deep Landscape Exploration of COVID-19 Patients Cells and Severity Markers.

COVID-19 is a disease with a spectrum of clinical responses ranging from moderate to critical. To study and control its effects, a large number of researchers are focused on two substantial aims. On the one hand, the discovery of diverse biomarkers to classify and potentially anticipate the disease severity of patients. These biomarkers could serve as a medical criterion to prioritize attention to those patients with higher prone to severe responses. On the other hand, understanding how the immune system orchestrates its responses in this spectrum of disease severities is a fundamental issue required to design new and optimized therapeutic strategies. In this work, using single-cell RNAseq of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of nine patients with COVID-19 and three healthy controls, we contribute to both aspects. First, we presented computational supervised machine-learning models with high accuracy in classifying the disease severity (moderate and severe) in patients with COVID-19 starting from single-cell data from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. Second, we identified regulatory mechanisms from the heterogeneous cell populations in the lungs microenvironment that correlated with different clinical responses. Given the results, patients with moderate COVID-19 symptoms showed an activation/inactivation profile for their analyzed cells leading to a sequential and innocuous immune response. In comparison, severe patients might be promoting cytotoxic and pro-inflammatory responses in a systemic fashion involving epithelial and immune cells without the possibility to develop viral clearance and immune memory. Consequently, we present an in-depth landscape analysis of how transcriptional factors and pathways from these heterogeneous populations can regulate their expression to promote or restrain an effective immune response directly linked to the patients prognosis.

An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast.

We propose an SEIARD mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mexico. Our model incorporates the asymptomatic infected individuals, who represent the majority of the infected population (with symptoms or not) and could play an important role in spreading the virus without any knowledge. We calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0) via the next-generation matrix method and estimate the per day infection, death and recovery rates. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established in terms of R 0. A sensibility analysis is performed to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. We calibrate the parameters of the SEIARD model to the reported number of infected cases, fatalities and recovered cases for several states in Mexico by minimizing the sum of squared errors and attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak until November 2020.